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These days when one goes to hear a talk on ancient climates of North America, one is likely to learn that the speaker was forced into early retirement from the U. Geological Survey by budget cuts. Greenland looks like that, even on a cloudless day—but the great white mass between the occasional punctuations is an ice sheet. There seems to be no way of escaping the conclusion that global climate flips occur frequently and abruptly. Meaning of 3 sheets to the wind. Keeping the present climate from falling back into the low state will in any case be a lot easier than trying to reverse such a change after it has occurred. Europe is an anomaly. Like bus routes or conveyor belts, ocean currents must have a return loop. Greenland's east coast has a profusion of fjords between 70°N and 80°N, including one that is the world's biggest. We might undertake to regulate the Mediterranean's salty outflow, which is also thought to disrupt the North Atlantic Current.
Pollen cores are still a primary means of seeing what regional climates were doing, even though they suffer from poorer resolution than ice cores (worms churn the sediment, obscuring records of all but the longest-lasting temperature changes). We need to make sure that no business-as-usual climate variation, such as an El Niño or the North Atlantic Oscillation, can push our climate onto the slippery slope and into an abrupt cooling. That might result in less evaporation, creating lower-than-normal levels of greenhouse gases and thus a global cooling. The discovery of abrupt climate changes has been spread out over the past fifteen years, and is well known to readers of major scientific journals such as Scienceand abruptness data are convincing. Temperature records suggest that there is some grand mechanism underlying all of this, and that it has two major states. The Great Salinity Anomaly, a pool of semi-salty water derived from about 500 times as much unsalted water as that released by Russell Lake, was tracked from 1968 to 1982 as it moved south from Greenland's east coast. Implementing it might cost no more, in relative terms, than building a medieval cathedral. Seawater is more complicated, because salt content also helps to determine whether water floats or sinks. We might create a rain shadow, seeding clouds so that they dropped their unsalted water well upwind of a given year's critical flushing sites—a strategy that might be particularly important in view of the increased rainfall expected from global warming. Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildren's resources.
A muddle-through scenario assumes that we would mobilize our scientific and technological resources well in advance of any abrupt cooling problem, but that the solution wouldn't be simple. Its effects are clearly global too, inasmuch as it is part of a long "salt conveyor" current that extends through the southern oceans into the Pacific. The last time an abrupt cooling occurred was in the midst of global warming. Water is densest at about 39°F (a typical refrigerator setting—anything that you take out of the refrigerator, whether you place it on the kitchen counter or move it to the freezer, is going to expand a little). We might, for example, anchor bargeloads of evaporation-enhancing surfactants (used in the southwest corner of the Dead Sea to speed potash production) upwind from critical downwelling sites, letting winds spread them over the ocean surface all winter, just to ensure later flushing. By 125, 000 years ago Homo sapienshad evolved from our ancestor species—so the whiplash climate changes of the last ice age affected people much like us. Natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes are less troubling than abrupt coolings for two reasons: they're short (the recovery period starts the next day) and they're local or regional (unaffected citizens can help the overwhelmed). This produces a heat bonus of perhaps 30 percent beyond the heat provided by direct sunlight to these seas, accounting for the mild winters downwind, in northern Europe. Or divert eastern-Greenland meltwater to the less sensitive north and west coasts. But we may be able to do something to delay an abrupt cooling. Computer models might not yet be able to predict what will happen if we tamper with downwelling sites, but this problem doesn't seem insoluble. And it sometimes changes its route dramatically, much as a bus route can be truncated into a shorter loop. From there it was carried northward by the warm Norwegian Current, whereupon some of it swung west again to arrive off Greenland's east coast—where it had started its inch-per-second journey. They might not be the end of Homo sapiens—written knowledge and elementary education might well endure—but the world after such a population crash would certainly be full of despotic governments that hated their neighbors because of recent atrocities.
Salt sinking on such a grand scale in the Nordic Seas causes warm water to flow much farther north than it might otherwise do. Coring old lake beds and examining the types of pollen trapped in sediment layers led to the discovery, early in the twentieth century, of the Younger Dryas. There is, increasingly, international cooperation in response to catastrophe—but no country is going to be able to rely on a stored agricultural surplus for even a year, and any country will be reluctant to give away part of its surplus. Because such a cooling would occur too quickly for us to make readjustments in agricultural productivity and supply, it would be a potentially civilization-shattering affair, likely to cause an unprecedented population crash. In 1970 it arrived in the Labrador Sea, where it prevented the usual salt sinking. These carry the North Atlantic's excess salt southward from the bottom of the Atlantic, around the tip of Africa, through the Indian Ocean, and up around the Pacific Ocean. The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Nothing like this happens in the Pacific Ocean, but the Pacific is nonetheless affected, because the sink in the Nordic Seas is part of a vast worldwide salt-conveyor belt. They were formerly thought to be very gradual, with both air temperature and ice sheets changing in a slow, 100, 000-year cycle tied to changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. Sudden onset, sudden recovery—this is why I use the word "flip-flop" to describe these climate changes. Broecker has written, "If you wanted to cool the planet by 5°C [9°F] and could magically alter the water-vapor content of the atmosphere, a 30 percent decrease would do the job. Fatalism, in other words, might well be foolish.
This salty waterfall is more like thirty Amazon Rivers combined. Again, the difference between them amounts to nine to eighteen degrees—a range that may depend on how much ice there is to slow the responses. Indeed, we've had an unprecedented period of climate stability. Salt circulates, because evaporation up north causes it to sink and be carried south by deep currents. A meteor strike that killed most of the population in a month would not be as serious as an abrupt cooling that eventually killed just as many. Now we know—and from an entirely different group of scientists exploring separate lines of reasoning and data—that the most catastrophic result of global warming could be an abrupt cooling. Civilizations accumulate knowledge, so we now know a lot about what has been going on, what has made us what we are. The most recent big cooling started about 12, 700 years ago, right in the midst of our last global warming. The fjords of Greenland offer some dramatic examples of the possibilities for freshwater floods. Eventually that helps to melt ice sheets elsewhere. We puzzle over oddities, such as the climate of Europe.
The dam, known as the Isthmus of Panama, may have been what caused the ice ages to begin a short time later, simply because of the forced detour. We need more well-trained people, bigger computers, more coring of the ocean floor and silted-up lakes, more ships to drag instrument packages through the depths, more instrumented buoys to study critical sites in detail, more satellites measuring regional variations in the sea surface, and perhaps some small-scale trial runs of interventions. A lake formed, rising higher and higher—up to the height of an eight-story building. History is full of withdrawals from knowledge-seeking, whether for reasons of fundamentalism, fatalism, or "government lite" economics. The high state of climate seems to involve ocean currents that deliver an extraordinary amount of heat to the vicinity of Iceland and Norway. Instead we would try one thing after another, creating a patchwork of solutions that might hold for another few decades, allowing the search for a better stabilizing mechanism to continue. It was initially hoped that the abrupt warmings and coolings were just an oddity of Greenland's weather—but they have now been detected on a worldwide scale, and at about the same time. Although the sun's energy output does flicker slightly, the likeliest reason for these abrupt flips is an intermittent problem in the North Atlantic Ocean, one that seems to trigger a major rearrangement of atmospheric circulation. These blobs, pushed down by annual repetitions of these late-winter events, flow south, down near the bottom of the Atlantic. There are a few obvious precursors to flushing failure. Ours is now a brain able to anticipate outcomes well enough to practice ethical behavior, able to head off disasters in the making by extrapolating trends. Ancient lakes near the Pacific coast of the United States, it turned out, show a shift to cold-weather plant species at roughly the time when the Younger Dryas was changing German pine forests into scrublands like those of modern Siberia. The fact that excess salt is flushed from surface waters has global implications, some of them recognized two centuries ago. A cheap-fix scenario, such as building or bombing a dam, presumes that we know enough to prevent trouble, or to nip a developing problem in the bud.
Glaciers pushing out into the ocean usually break off in chunks. By 1971-1972 the semi-salty blob was off Newfoundland. But to address how all these nonlinear mechanisms fit together—and what we might do to stabilize the climate—will require some speculation. We must look at arriving sunlight and departing light and heat, not merely regional shifts on earth, to account for changes in the temperature balance. A remarkable amount of specious reasoning is often encountered when we contemplate reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.
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